It's the equation that will leave Northern Pride fans - and coach Ty Williams - biting their fingernails.
The Cairns-based club may seem out of danger going into the final round of the Intrust Super Cup – with most seeing the ladder race for top six spots as a battle between PNG and Ipswich.
However, a look back to Round 11 gives us reason to believe otherwise.
Round 11 was the 'mirror' round to this weekend's fixtures, where the games which decide the make-up of the finals will be:
- Easts v Burleigh, 1.10pm Saturday, Suzuki Stadium, Langlands Park
- Central Queensland v PNG, 6pm Saturday, Browne Park
- Northern Pride v Tweed Heads, 6pm Saturday, Barlow Park
- Norths v Ipswich, 3pm Sunday, Bishop Park
When those games were held in reverse in Round 11, the results were:
- Burleigh 26 d Easts 18
- PNG 18 d Central Queensland 10
- Tweed Heads 28 d Northern Pride 22
- Ipswich 32 d Norths 25
If those same results were to reoccur this time around it would mean PNG, after a dismal start to the season, would leapfrog from 6th to 4th.
It would also mean that Easts, Northern Pride and Ipswich would all finish level on 28 points.
With a points differential of +103, you would have to think that makes Easts safe, aside from an absolute towelling by Burleigh.
That leaves a very interesting equation if the Pride (+70) lost and Jets (+41) won, with a 10-point loss for the Pride and a 20-point win for Ipswich meaning Williams' men would go under.
You'd have to say that the Pride at home are much better positioned to defeat Tweed this time around and avoid the threat altogether, particularly as the Seagulls have been weakened in recent weeks.
However, there are no certainties in this game called rugby league.
